Ladies’s Lacrosse Bracketology: The Ripple Results of AQ Thieves
Sat Might 8 2021 | Jeremy Fallis | Faculty
Saturday has the potential to be probably the most thrilling of the season with eight champions set to be topped. As such, the thrill is ratcheted up by bubble groups’ worst nightmares: bid thieves.
We’ve 12 groups on the bubble — the final 4 in (Rutgers, Towson, Penn State and Vanderbilt), the primary 4 out (Virginia Tech, Ohio State, Colorado and Elon) and the subsequent 4 out (UConn, Albany, Louisville and Saint Joseph’s). All 12 groups are hoping the favorites maintain serve.
We’ll establish the potential bid thief, what it will imply and the extent of concern the bubble groups ought to have about that occuring.
Thief: Albany will get a 3rd shot at Stony Brook.
Consequence: Albany would take an at-large bid from the bubble pool and Stony Brook would fall out of a seeding line.
Stage of Concern: 3/10. Albany may flip the shock, in any case UMBC was frisky for one half towards Stony Brook within the semifinals.
Thief: Liberty, which misplaced 22-11 earlier this season to Jacksonvile, would additionally steal a bid. Liberty was 0-2 towards Jacksonville this season.
Consequence: Jacksonville could be squarely on the bubble. Few groups have the standard of the Dolphins’ early season victory over Florida. Jacksonville would additionally carry two important losses to Coastal Carolina and Liberty. In our S-Curve, Jacksonville sits between Towson and Penn State.
Stage of Concern: 2/10. Jacksonville is an amazing favourite, however a second unhealthy loss would doubtless knock them out of at-large competition altogether.
Thief: UConn is the fourth group out as of now and dropped slim video games to Denver earlier this season.
Consequence: Denver could be in an analogous place to Jacksonville. The Huge East wasn’t fairly robust; due to this fact, the probabilities to rack up large time wins have been restricted. The Pioneers have a non-conference victory over bubble squad Colorado, however nary a nasty loss. They’re slightly below Penn State and Vanderbilt in our S-Curve however would possibly snag a bid.
Stage of Concern: 7/10. UConn is sweet, and it’s tough to beat a group thrice in a season. Moreover, Denver has a robust case as an at-large group.
Thief: Colorado has an analogous profile to Jacksonville — a high quality win over a match group (Denver) however a pair important losses to their title (Louisville, Arizona State and USC). Now these three losses aren’t that unhealthy, however they do weigh down the resume a bit.
Consequence: Stanford hasn’t misplaced this season, and regardless of having only one victory over a Prime 30 RPI group, the Cardinal needs to be in. The bubble would positively shrink.
Stage of Concern: 8/10. The Buffaloes are adequate to beat Stanford, which has squeaked by a number of instances this season, and is a robust candidate for an at-large bid.
Thief: Lehigh tries to win three-straight Patriot League match video games for a shock bid over league stalwart Loyola.
Consequence: Loyola would positively be within the discipline of 29 and will probably fall out of a seed line. An at-large spot would disappear.
Stage of Concern: 5/10. Lehigh performed Loyola powerful within the common season, falling 15-11, in a recreation that was nearer than the four-goal margin. With that stated, the Greyhounds haven’t dropped a recreation since Feb. 24.
For those who take note of this area, you’ll see some shaking up of the bracketing this week. Typically, we comply with the NCAA tips on geographical placement. Within the present discipline of 29 we now have projected, a minimal of 5 flights could be used, which is economically prudent. However, that’s on the expense of bracket integrity, specifically Furman (or Mercer, doubtlessly), which is twenty ninth in our S-Curve. The one predetermined web site close to Furman is North Carolina. This created the potential of a decrease seed to face a high quality at-large group (final week it was No. 8 Stony Brook internet hosting Penn State), when it needs to be going through a barely decrease ranked squad. It needs to be famous that Mercer would fly, because it’s greater than 400 miles from Chapel Hill.
The twenty ninth group ought to face the No. 4 group within the discipline, on this case Boston Faculty. In as we speak’s projection, we made the choice to place Furman within the BC pod and that gave flexibility to have the winners from the NEC, MAAC and Huge South to play higher-ranked groups. That does create six flights, and the NCAA Choice Committee could elect to place forth simply 5 flying groups or add one other southern pod (at the moment No. 6 Drexel isn’t slated to host, due to this fact we now have Maryland internet hosting a pod).
Notice: First-place groups are listed as automated qualifiers. Within the occasion of a tie, the AQ goes to the best rated group within the. There are a complete of 15 automated qualifiers and 14 at-large groups to comprise a 29-team discipline. Vital wins embrace all groups within the RPI Prime 30 and projected NCAA groups, important losses are these RPI 31+. For the Huge Ten and MAAC, we used important wins as these over groups within the discipline and important losses as these among the many groups not being thought of for at-large bids. All data are via Might 2. * denotes Computerized Qualifiers.
Computerized Qualifiers (15)
|Jacksonville||15||79||1-0||1-0||5-1||Coastal Carolina (42)|
|Mount St. Mary’s||24||69||0-0||2-2||6-0||—|
|Furman||44||61||0-1||0-2||5-1||East Carolina (58)|
North Carolina would be the No. 1 seed and host a gap weekend pod … Drexel survived Towson’s upset bid and might be a seeded group … Northwestern went an ideal 12-0 towards Huge Ten groups. The Wildcats are a nationwide title contender …
Stony Brook faces Albany for the America East crown. A win will get the Seawolves one other step nearer to a seed, whereas a loss places that in jeopardy … Loyola hosts the Patriot League title recreation towards Lehigh on Saturday … UMass will doubtless be positioned in Boston Faculty’s pod …
Florida will attempt to make it a clear sweep of Temple within the AAC title recreation in Gainesville. The Gators may hop into seeded place (and a internet hosting designation) with a win … One other favourite that’s internet hosting a convention title recreation is Stanford towards Colorado … Prime-seeded Denver performs second-seeded UConn in what could possibly be an all-or-nothing occasion in Washington, D.C. …
Jacksonville faces a must-win recreation towards Liberty within the ASUN championship recreation in Kennesaw, Georgia. The Dolphins doubtless can’t afford a loss … Prime-seeded Fairfield faces Siena, the one group it misplaced to this season, within the MAAC title recreation … Mount St. Mary’s hosts Bryant within the NEC championship recreation …
Excessive Level took the Huge South title and can doubtless face a seeded group within the first spherical … Robert Morris continues its excellent run via the MAC forward of the NCAA match … Furman faces host and No. 3 seed Mercer within the Southern Convention title recreation.
At-Giant (23 groups/14 spots)
|Virginia Tech||43||7||0-8||2-3||2-4||Louisville (31)|
|Elon||27||73||0-0||1-2||3-3||Virginia Tech (43)|
|Colorado||29||24||1-3||3-3||4-2||Louisville (31), Arizona State (33), USC (39)|
Syracuse (14-3) and Boston Faculty have been idle this week and stay seeded second and fourth, respectively … Notre Dame (9-6) seems to be to keep up its slot at No. 5, though the Irish could possibly be handed by Drexel pending Sunday’s CAA championship recreation …
Maryland (9-6) can be idle after final week’s runner-up look within the Huge Ten match … Temple (12-4) brushed apart Vanderbilt within the AAC semifinals to arrange a title matchup with Florida … Hofstra (6-6) fell to James Madison within the CAA semifinals Friday night and will simply be within the discipline …
Duke (9-7), Johns Hopkins (8-6) and Virginia (8-8) have been all idle and await their at-large bids … James Madison (10-4) cruised into the CAA last to face Drexel …
Rutgers (6-8) would be the first of two groups we record with shedding data projected within the discipline. The Scarlet Knights defeated Maryland, Johns Hopkins and Penn State every this season … Towson (9-8) almost obtained off the bubble on Friday evening however fell to Drexel in additional time. The Tigers completed the season 1-7 and are among the many last 4 groups in our projected discipline …
Penn State (4-9) and Northwestern are the one groups to defeat Maryland greater than as soon as this season. One wonders if that might be sufficient … Vanderbilt (12-6) has only one win over a projected NCAA group and that’s Temple, a group it additionally misplaced to twice …
Ohio State (4-9) did sweep Penn State at residence, however on frequent opponents and important wins, Penn State nonetheless stays forward … Virginia Tech (5-11) is likely to be projected too excessive right here because the second group out, however its win over Virginia is healthier than nearly all the opposite bubble dwellers …
Elon (8-3) misplaced three of its last six, together with essential matchups to Virginia Tech and Towson within the CAA play-in recreation … UConn’s (12-5) has to beat Denver to make it in … Albany (11-6) misplaced to UConn earlier this season, holds a stable win over Hofstra, however must upset Stony Brook to get in …
Louisville (5-11) had 10 probabilities to win a recreation towards Prime 20 opponents and couldn’t get the job carried out … With Louisville’s RPI dropping a number of spots, Colorado (8-6) now carries three important losses on its resume. A win over Stanford within the Pac-12 title recreation is the one approach in proper now …
Saint Joseph’s (10-7) performed an excellent schedule however couldn’t muster a resume-defining victory … Lehigh (9-3) is taking part in spoiler proper now and attempting to make the Patriot League a two-bid league.
The committee seeds the highest eight groups. Predetermined websites are getting used to host first- and second-round video games. All different groups are unseeded and might be positioned geographically to restrict the variety of flights, whereas conserving bracket integrity when doable.
The highest three seeded groups will obtain a bye into the second spherical and host one first-round recreation between two different groups. The remaining 5 seeded groups might be bracketed with three unseeded groups.
Convention matchups are to be averted within the first spherical.
This 12 months, there are 29 slots with 15 automated qualifiers, except the Ivy League declares a champion earlier than Choice Sunday, which might make it 16. Because it stands now, 14 at-large groups might be chosen. There aren’t any play-in video games this season.
Chapel Hill, N.C.
Virginia vs. James Madison
Winner performs at (1) North Carolina (ACC)
Stony Brook, N.Y.
Florida (AAC) vs. Penn State
Mount St. Mary’s (NEC) at (8) Stony Brook (AMERICA EAST)
Hofstra vs. UMass (A-10)
Furman (SOUTHERN) vs. (4) Boston Faculty
Notre Dame, Ind.
Stanford (PAC-12) vs. Denver (BIG EAST)
Robert Morris (MAC) at (5) Notre Dame
Rutgers vs. Towson
Winner performs at (2) Syracuse
Temple vs. Johns Hopkins
Excessive Level (BIG SOUTH) vs. (7) Loyola (PATRIOT)
Evanston In poor health.
Jacksonville (ASUN) vs. Vanderbilt
Winner performs at (3) Northwestern (BIG TEN)
Faculty Park, Md.
Maryland vs. Duke
Fairfield (MAAC) vs. (6) Drexel (CAA)
Final 4 In: Rutgers, Towson, Penn State, Vanderbilt
First 4 Out: Virginia Tech, Ohio State, Colorado, Elon
Subsequent 4 Out: UConn, Albany, Louisville Saint Joseph’s
Shifting In: N/A
Shifting Out: N/A
Multi-bid Conferences: ACC (6), Huge Ten (5), CAA (4), American (3)